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OECD predicts growth to continue in China and move higher in the US

Hits:  UpdateTime:2016-11-30 08:50:24

China's economy will grow at 6.7 percent this year, but will

edge down to 6.4 percent and 6.1 percent in 2017 and 2018

respectively, the Paris-based Organization for Economic

Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Monday in

its latest Economic Outlook, which is published twice each year.

Its three-year predictions are roughly consistent with the Chinese

government's goal of achieving an average annual rate of 6.5

percent during the 2016-20 period to realize its target of doubling

the per capita income by 2020 from a 2010 base, although

the OECD said China needs to arrest the downward trend

in 2019 and 2020 if it is to reach that goal.

Leading Chinese policy insiders said the OECD predictions

for the three years were reasonable as growth fluctuations

were normal and acceptable in the process of restructuring

the economy and China "enjoys more advantages than

disadvantages" in keeping its annual economic growth

rate at 6 to 7 percent in the 2016-20 period, as long as the

economies of the United States, Japan and the EU also offer

growth momentum.

The OECD said the US economy is going to pick up, due

to an assumed easing of fiscal policy, with the economy

projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3 percent in

2018. The euro area is predicted to grow 1.6 percent in

2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Japanese growth is

projected at 1 percent in 2017 and 0.8 percent in 2018.

The report says that the total growth of the 35 OECD

countries is projected to be 2 percent in 2017 and 2.3

percent in 2018. India's growth rates are expected to

hover above 7.5 percent over the 2017-18 period, but

many emerging market economies will continue to grow

at a more sluggish pace.

"The global economy has the prospect of modestly higher

growth, after five years of disappointingly weak outcomes,"

OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said, while launching

the report in Paris. "In light of the current context of low

interest rates, policymakers have a unique window of

opportunity to make more active use of fiscal levers to

boost growth and reduce inequality without compromising

debt levels. We urge them to do so."

The organization said global growth will grow by 3.3

percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018.

Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and

Development, said the messages in the OECD report were

quite positive and China's continuing economic restructuring

would also benefit from the upside projections of the global

economy and advanced countries.

"There is no problem for China to keep its target of an

average rate of 6.5 percent of economic growth during the

2016-2020 period. Plus, China has much untapped potential

to maintain a medium and high rate, given such a populous

and mature market," said Chi, a leading policy adviser for

the government.

"The predictions on growth trends of the advanced

economies will further help China maintain faster growth."

Chi urged the international community to look at China's

fluctuations in growth rates with "a rational mindset."

"This is because China is now changing its investment- and

export-driven model to other growth engines, such as

consumption, innovation, green development and upgrading

of people's life quality," said Chi. "Therefore, the fluctuations

in the next five years are expected and healthy."

However, Chi said the fluctuations would be manageable and

growth would stay at 6-7 percent. "So, I am very confident

that China can deliver its targets during the 2016-20 period,

in order to realize the goal of doubling growth of per capita

income from 2010 to 2020."

China's economy will grow at 6.7 percent this year, but will

edge down to 6.4 percent and 6.1 percent in 2017 and 2018

respectively, the Paris-based Organization for Economic

Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Monday

in its latest Economic Outlook, which is published twice

each year.

 

Its three-year predictions are roughly consistent with the

Chinese government's goal of achieving an average annual

rate of 6.5 percent during the 2016-20 period to realize its

target of doubling the per capita income by 2020 from a

2010 base, although the OECD said China needs to arrest

the downward trend in 2019 and 2020 if it is to reach that goal.

 

Leading Chinese policy insiders said the OECD predictions

for the three years were reasonable as growth fluctuations

were normal and acceptable in the process of restructuring

the economy and China "enjoys more advantages than

disadvantages" in keeping its annual economic growth

rate at 6 to 7 percent in the 2016-20 period, as long as the

economies of the United States, Japan and the EU also

offer growth momentum.

 

The OECD said the US economy is going to pick up, due

to an assumed easing of fiscal policy, with the economy

projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3 percent in

2018. The euro area is predicted to grow 1.6 percent in 2017

and 1.7 percent in 2018. Japanese growth is projected at 1

percent in 2017 and 0.8 percent in 2018.

 

The report says that the total growth of the 35 OECD countries

is projected to be 2 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent in 2018.

India's growth rates are expected to hover above 7.5 percent

over the 2017-18 period, but many emerging market

economies will continue to grow at a more sluggish pace.

 

"The global economy has the prospect of modestly higher

growth, after five years of disappointingly weak outcomes,"

OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said, while launching

the report in Paris. "In light of the current context of low

interest rates, policymakers have a unique window of opportunity

to make more active use of fiscal levers to boost growth

and reduce inequality without compromising debt levels.

We urge them to do so."

 

The organization said global growth will grow by 3.3

percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018.

 

Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform

and Development, said the messages in the OECD report

were quite positive and China's continuing economic

restructuring would also benefit from the upside projections

of the global economy and advanced countries.

 

"There is no problem for China to keep its target of an

average rate of 6.5 percent of economic growth during the

2016-2020 period. Plus, China has much untapped potential

to maintain a medium and high rate, given such a populous

and mature market," said Chi, a leading policy adviser for

the government.

 

"The predictions on growth trends of the advanced economies

will further help China maintain faster growth."

 

Chi urged the international community to look at China's

fluctuations in growth rates with "a rational mindset."

 

"This is because China is now changing its investment- and

export-driven model to other growth engines, such as

consumption, innovation, green development and

upgrading of people's life quality," said Chi. "Therefore,

the fluctuations in the next five years are expected and healthy."

 

However, Chi said the fluctuations would be manageable

and growth would stay at 6-7 percent. "So, I am very

confident that China can deliver its targets during the

2016-20 period, in order to realize the goal of doubling

growth of per capita income from 2010 to 2020."

See more at:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-11/30/

content_27521955.htm

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